Climate & weather - and not losing our balance

One of the joys of working in environment is the comments we get when it snows. Lower than average temperatures anywhere in the UK at any time are taken as proof positive that climate change isn't real. I can understand why people would like to dismiss the whole concept. If climate change is real and the effects on our children and grandchildren are as predicted then we all ought to do something about it. To make a real difference we are going to have to make large changes. It's so much easier if we can deny it. Unfortunately the science points to climate change being real and mostly our responsibility.

People tend to forget that there is a difference between weather and climate. Weather is what we get day to day. It is variable and difficult to predict accurately. Will it rain on 3rd July? We don't know in January. Climate is the big picture and is more predictable. We can be fairly sure that it will be warmer on 3rd July than it is today. In the UK our climate is temperate maritime which means it is generally mild and damp and subject to a lot of weather. Oscar Wilde said, 'Conversation about the weather is the last refuge of the unimaginative.' In the UK it is one of the safest conversational subjects, suitable for all, especially at the moment when it is the second winter to be unusually cold following a prolonged run of mild winters. During last year's winter a taxi driver in Sheffield (font of all knowledge) commented that there was a whole generation of drivers who had little experience of driving on ice.

What we should remember is that weather is local and climate change is global. As you can see in NASA's temperature map below whilst November was unusually cold in the UK and northern Europe there are whole areas surrounding us that are very much warmer then normal. The other thing we might consider is that climate destabilisation can have a marked effect on our local weather.

I have been saying for quite some time now, in my entirely unscientific way, that continuing arctic ice melt can only result in strange weather. That huge amount of ice at the top of the world, covering the sea and reflecting sunlight must have a large effect on the weather we experience in the UK. The gardening book I am reading at the moment, 'The Resilient Gardener' puts it very nicely:

'Climatic changes cause irregularities in the patterns of ocean currents and winds. The local effects of those changes are huge compared with the few degrees cited as likely increases in average global climate in the next few decades. A change in wind patterns that brings Arctic inland air masses to you instead of mild ocean air will matter much more than a few degrees higher average global temperature.'

This may be what is happening at the moment. Arctic sea ice is lower than usual, as can be seen on the Arctic Sea Ice News website. Scientists are already at work looking at the potential effects of lower sea-ice. The Oslo Science Conference website, reporting Dr James Overland's comments summarised, 'a warmer Arctic climate is influencing the air pressure at the North Pole and shifting wind patterns on our planet. We can expect more cold and snowy winters in Europe, eastern Asia and eastern North America'. Recently Vladimir Petoukhov and Vladimir Semenov have issued a press release based on a paper in the Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR) arguing that Global Warming could cool down winter temperatures over Europe, and a reduced sea-ice extent could increase the chance of getting cold winters.

Whenever I come across any climate related news I head straight for Real Climate, a blog about 'Climate science from climate scientists'. I have to concentrate really hard to remember my physics and occasionally do background reading to fully understand what they are talking about but it's worth the effort. They didn't let me down with these stories which are discussed in a recent blog posting. They critique the JGR paper and suggest that further work needs to be done before the link they describe is confirmed but conclude, 'It is nevertheless no contradiction between a global warming and cold winters in regions like Europe. Rather, recent analysis suggest that the global mean temperature is marching towards higher values, and Petoukhov and Semenov argue that the cold winter should be an expected consequence of a global warming.'

NB The temperature anomaly map is for November 2010, the most up-to-date at the time of writing.

Snow & Ice - and staying on our feet

Last week was cold here. It snowed lightly on Friday and the light dusting turned very quickly to ice making the roads treacherous. On Saturday night it started to properly snow and we had several inches.

Despite that, on Monday I set off for Manchester to deliver a training course. Luckily it was an afternoon course and I'd given myself plenty of time to get there. I set out at ten and arrived at 13.30 to find the room not set up, no flip chart and only four delegates. By the time I'd sorted out the room the delegate numbers were up to just a couple short of the expected numbers and we made an enthusiastic start.

To be fair, I had quite a pleasant day. There was a long wait at Sheffield Station as I'd allowed plenty of time for the bus to be delayed, which it wasn't, although the train was over half an hour late. In the new world of high-tech connectivity I didn't waste that time. I bought a coffee in order to be allowed to sit and work at a table and got on with all my outstanding stuff. The trip over the Pennines was spectacular - at this time of year I rarely see it, it being dark for both the outward and return trips. By the time we got into Manchester Piccadilly we were running so late that they turfed us off and set off back to Cleethorpes leaving us to scurry along and catch the local train to the airport.

By the time I arrived back to the airport station on my way home, one minute after the scheduled departure time, they were back to running strictly to time and I had another 55 minutes to catch up with outstanding stuff. I must say that although public transport was disrupted by the snow I never for an instant though about trying to drive to Manchester which involves either the Snake or Woodhead Passes (often closed by this sort of weather and amazingly slow even when not) or the M62, a long way round and probably carrying the burden of the traffic from the other routes.

On Tuesday morning I checked National Rail Enquiries to find that the train to Leeds was running on time. Walking through fresh snow, even down my scary steep hill, was fairly pleasant so I caught my bus, then the train all bang on time. At Leeds the train to Garforth was delayed so, following a problem the week before with the taxi company (during Eid there are very few taxi drivers available in Garforth), I took the opportunity to call ahead and ask for a taxi to be waiting for me. At this point, standing in the snow on a frigid platform, I learned that none of the drivers were prepared to drive from the station to the training venue. Hmm. Luckily one of the delegates was already there and quite happy to brave the snow and pick me up. He had a front wheel drive car and so had rather more control than the posh BMW sitting in the car park, revving but going nowhere. It was a good training course and a lovely day in Garforth where it was cold but sunny all day long. Back in Sheffield though, the difference of forty miles was clear. Whilst it had been bright and biting in Garforth it had snowed all day in Sheffield. I was tremendously grateful that the taxi driver at Sheffield Station was prepared to risk taking me towards home. He wasn't prepared to chance going off the bus route because even that was a couple of inches thick with snow. Off this the roads were about six inches deep.

By Wednesday, when the snowman was built, the snow was fifteen inches deep and we reluctantly postponed the course in Birmingham scheduled for Thursday. There was only a light dusting there and the trains were running less than 30 minutes late but there was no safe way to get to the station in Sheffield carrying a laptop and all the paperwork or, more importantly, back to my house in the evening. I worked at home Wednesday and Friday and, given that it was -10C last night, the pavements and roads are icy, and I don't fall gracefully, I am working at home today, hence the catch up. Tomorrow I'll attempt getting to Birmingham. Because there is only so much stuff that is outstanding.